Carlo's Think Pieces

Reflections of a Filipino in the Netherlands

On the Offer of Four Cabinet Posts

Posted by butalidnl on 25 May 2016

President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has offered four cabinet posts to the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP). They are that of : DOLE (Department of Labor and Employment),  DAR (Department of Agrarian Reform), DSWD (Department of Social Work and Development) and DENR (Department of the Environment and Natural Resources). During the election campaign Duterte had promised to make peace with the CPP and bring them into government.

The Departments
Duterte chose four departments which the CPP could offer to the CPP. While these departments are important, they are not essential politicial, economic or security tasks of the government.

DAR. This department fits best with both the interests and the skill set of the CPP. The Philippines has already had two DAR secretaries from the Left: Ernesto Garilao (1992 – 1996) and Horacio Morales (1998 – 2001).  There are already several lower-level DAR officials who used to be leftist activists.

DOLE. The KMU (Kilusang Mayo Uno, May First Movement) and the rest of the progressive labor  movement.may probably be able to provide suitable candidates for labor Secretary. The most left-leaning labor secretary so far was Augusto Sanchex, who was a prominent human rights lawyer before serving as Labor Secretary in 1986 -1987.

DENR. The CPP has a mixed record when it comes to environmental issues. While it sometimes condemns mining companies and loggers for their various violations of environmental laws; the CPP often allows them to operate in their areas as long as they pay ‘revolutionary taxes’. At the same time, the government has a terrible record in appointing Environment Secretaries. Having a CPP nominee in the position may be a welcome change.

DSWD. Corazon Soliman, who served as Welfare Secretary from 2001 to 2005 and again from 2010 to 2016, was a moderate-left activist before becoming Secretary. She has been credited with the successful implementation of the landmark Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Program – which gives a modest subsidy to poor families on the condition that their children attend school and avail of medical services. About 4.4 million people benefit from the CCT Program.

Possible Problems
CPP leader Jose Maria Sison has declared that they would accept the offer, and will come up with names of ‘left’ personalities as nominees for the Secretary positions.

The process of actually coming up with nominees could prove difficult, though. In the past years, the CPP had been busy ejecting people from the party who could qualify for such positions;  condemning them for being ‘reformist’ or something similar. Now, the CPP would have to pick candidates from the few cadres it has left who  would qualify for these positions.
If the CPP cannot source nominees from among its ranks, they may be forced to nominate people from outside its immediate circles – maybe even people whom it had previously condemned as reformist.

An even bigger hurdle to the CPP coming up with nominees the  matter of fitting the appointing of four cabinet secretaries into its overall strategy.  It may be too easy to say  that this  is a matter of temporary tactics. However, it would mean a major adjustment in how the CPP does things. Specifically, it has to do with the role of the armed struggle to achieve its goals. While Duterte has not spelled it out explicitly, he expects a quid pro quo for the cabinet positions – that of having a ceasefire and peace talks. A six-year ceasefire would wreck havoc within the New Peoples Army; if it does not have anything to do, its ranks will fade away.

Then there is the matter of the CPP strategy for finally achieving power. Will the CPP accept a negotiated route to achieving its goals? or would it be just a temporary detour from the armed struggle? And what is the use of armed struggle if they could gain a governmental role simply by a political route? Their rationale for engaging in armed struggle is that the ruling classes would violently oppose efforts to change the political and economic system. Questions of strategy are a point of tension within the CPP. The balance between ‘legal’ struggle and armed struggle, and their relationship, has been a topic of internal debate and even splits for decades. The question of the cabinet positions will surely increase these tensions within the party.

Duterte’s policies could also be a sticking point. Bayan (a CPP-influenced mass organization) has already denounced Duterte’s economic policies. A more problematic issue is Duterte’s plan to have the dictator Ferdinand Marcos buried at the Libingan ng mga Bayani (Burial Place for Heroes). This would also mean some kind of rehabilitation for him. The CPP may not want to be part of a government that rehabilitates Marcos.

Then comes the problems with security. If the DSWD includes peasants from the CPP mass base in the CCT program, the government will know who they are. After the 6-year period, they may be attacked for being communist sympathizers. Also, having a DAR Secretary may mean that the government military entering CPP-controlled areas to implement DAR orders.And what about the security of the Secretaries themselves and their staffers? They may all need to go underground after Duterte’s term.

Choosing a Response
Sison may have declared acceptance of the four cabinet posts; but this does not necessarily mean that the CPP really accepts the offer. It is the actual leaders of the CPP in the country who really call the shots. Sison was only given authority to hold peace talks with the government; actual concessions would need to be made by the leaders in the Philippines.

The CPP’s Central Committee, or more specifically the Secretariat of its Executive Committee, would be the one to make the final decision. Before doing so, they would need to consult some of the lower party organs e.g. the United Front Commission, which will probably be tasked to produce the nominees,  as well as the New People’s Army’s high command. I suspect the NPA will balk at the prospect of having a 6-year ceasefire.
After careful consideration the Secretariat will issue its decision on this matter.

The decision could be within the following range:
Full acceptance of Duterte’s offer. Four nominees will be chosen from among the ranks of its ‘influenced’ organizations.  Peace talks with the government will be started. A ceasefire of limited duration will be declared, as a possible prelude to an extended ceasefire.
or
The CPP will decline the offer. Disagreement on ssues e.g the proposed burial of Marcos and/or other portions of Duterte’s policies will be deemed incompatible with participation in his government.
or
Something in between.

I suspect that the CPP leadership will neither fully accept nor fully reject Duterte’s offer. Perhaps it could nominate someone for DAR or DOLE from within its ranks,  but nominate outside progressives for DENR and DSWD. It could agree on a partial ceasefire – i.e. that no large-scale military operations will be undertaken, but that ‘police actions’ by both sides would be allowed (this may be done to appease the NPA leadership). Also, the peace talks could be held both in the Philippines and with Sison’s team abroad.

The way the CPP handles this offer could determine its prospects of building peace with the govenment, including for the period after Duterte’s presidency.

 

 

 

 

 

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Responding to Marcos’ Near-Victory

Posted by butalidnl on 17 May 2016

Ferdinand Marcos Jr nearly got elected as Vice President in the recent Philippine elections. He lost by only a couple of hundred thousand votes.  A full third of the electorate voted for him, believing that (pick one or more of the following):
– Martial Law was not that bad, or even that it was good;
– Martial Law was bad, but was only the fault of his father;
– the VP position isn’t that important anyway;
– Marcos was the most experienced, and most competent among the VP candidates;
– it was important to vote against the LP, even if it meant voting for Marcos

Let us go into these points more deeply.

Teaching Martial Law at School
The first point – the belief that Martial Law was not that bad – is the fault of successive post-Martial Law politicians and of Filipinos in general.  After we overthrew Marcos in 1986, we felt that everyone knew about Martial Law. We didn’t do enough to ensure that this general knowledge was passed on to future generations.

Every year, there would be an EDSA anniversary celebration on 25 February; but there was no effort to include the experience of Martial Law in school history textbooks. In those textbooks, Marcos was portrayed as just one in the series of presidents. Students were taught that all presidents had good and bad points. The students took it to mean that Martial Law was not that bad – just something similar to the failed Estrada presidency.
What should have been done was to have a specific chapter on Martial Law: on how Marcos grabbed power, on the various economic, political and human rights crimes the Marcosses committed, and the brave resistance of many people, and finally the 1986 uprising.

Instead of merely remembering the EDSA uprising every 25 February, we should also mark 21 September as the anniversary of the Martial Law declaration. 21 September would then be some kind of ‘Memorial Day’ and 25 February ‘Freedom Day’.  The Aquinos’ role in both should be reduced; more emphasis should be given to how many people who suffered under Martial Law, and how they fought back.

Merely the Son of…
Ferdinand Marcos Jr is trying to pass himself of as ‘merely the son of’ FM Sr. the dictator. That he was innocent of the wrongdoings of his father and mother. But this is a lie.
FM Jr became 18 years old in 1975, a mere 3 years into Martial Law. He was an adult who fully participated in the ‘family business’ of looting the wealth of the Philippines. He used dummy corporations to siphon money from legitimate businesses.
And then there are the various secret bank accounts of the Marcos family. FM opened secret bank accounts for all his children, to which they alone would have the access codes.While the Philippine government has gotten hold of the assets from many Marcos accounts (especially those in Swiss banks), there are many accounts elsewhere, which are harder to trace. FM Sr’s remaining personal accounts, which are presently controlled by Imelda Marcos, will also surely be passed on to her children upon her death.

So, FM Jr is not merely the son of FM Sr, the dictator. He is his heir; he was a co-conspirator to his father; he has inherited a big part of the loot his parents had stolen; he is complicit in many of FM Sr’s crimes..

“The Vice President Position is not that Important”
Some people say that the they could vote for FM Jr, because it is ‘only’ for Vice President, which is after all not an important position.
While it is true that the position of Vice President is not as powerful as that of the President, VPs yield more power than senators or cabinet secretaries. First of all, a Vice President is often given a cabinet post. She/he will attend cabinet meetings. And since she/he is the only one whom the president cannot dismiss, she/he will be one of the cabinet heavyweights, regardless of whatever portfolio she/he has.

Second, a VP is literally only a heartbeat away from being president. If the president dies or is deposed, the vice president will take over. This has happened three times in Philippine history: in 1944 when Osmena became president-in-exile after Quezon’s death; in 1957 when Garcia took over after Magsaysay died in a plane crash; and in 2001, when Gloria Macapagal Arroyo replaced president Estrada after he was deposed.
For this reason, we should only elect a vice president who would make a good president.

Then, the vice presidency is a perfect launching pad for an eventual presidential campaign. Marcos was the VP of Macapagal before he first ran for president in 1965. Erap Estrada skillfully used his VP position for this purpose. Binay  used it for the same purpose.

If FM Jr became vice president, he would also have used the position to gradually change people’s perception of FM Sr and Martial Law.

Most Experienced, Competent
Then, it is said that FM Jr was the most experienced and competent candidate.  In response to this, we could recall how Cory Aquino responded to a similar argument by Marcos Sr (paraphrasing): “I am not as experienced as Marcos in cheating, stealing and trampling on people’s human rights”.  One’s length of stay in office is not an automatic sign of competence, but of the strength of one’s political dynastic power.

Leni Robredo had served only 3 years in the House of Representatives; but she had performed exceptionally well as Representative, with many good bills introduced and advocated, including the Freedom of Information Bill and the Comprehensive Anti-Discrimination Bill. Before becoming Representative, she had worked for the Naga City Public Attorney’s Office, and then as coordinator of SALIGAN – an alternative legal support group. Her work brought her in contact with people from many communities, including many outlying ones. She has had a lot of experience.
FM Jr became Vice-Governor of Ilocos Norte in 1980 (after finishing college), and proceeded to take positions alternately as governor, congressman and senator, all based on his local dynastic politicial base in Ilocos Norte (with an interlude between 1986 and 1991 because he was with his father in exile). Having been always in public office, FMJr does not have any experience with what ordinary people feel and want.

What FM Jr seems to have done during his years in public office is to steer clear of petty political controversies and corruption scandals. With literally billions of dollars in bank accounts, and the Marcos unchallenged political dominance in Ilocos Norte, he did not need to. Compared to other political wheeler-dealers who ran for vice president e.g. Chiz Escudero or Gregorio Honasan, FM Jr would indeed seem like a decent choice.

Marcos vs Aquino
One narrative that seems to be quite strong is that Martial Law was mainly about the rivalry between Marcos and Aquino. Under this logic, the administration of PNoy is just the counterpoint of Martial Law (and implicitly was made to be equivalent to it). Thus, those who disliked PNoy and the Liberal Party should vote for FM Jr .

I come from Cebu; and I know that Marcos’ main rival when he declared Martial Law was Sergio Osmena Jr (Serging), who had run against him in the 1969 elections. When Marcos declared Martial Law, the first target was the power base of vice president Fernando Lopez – Marcos grabbed their properties (incl. ABS-CBN and Meralco) – because the Lopez family was the biggest threat to his power.  The outspoken Senators who opposed Marcos were Salonga, Diokno, Aquino and Tanada. Among them, Salonga was the most respected leader. Salonga, however, suffered from ill-health due to the injuries he incurred during the Plaza Miranda Bombing of 1971. It was Salonga who headed a broad coalition of the opposition in its boycott of the 1981 elections.

During the darkest years of the dictatorship, Ninoy Aquino was in exile in the USA. After the 1981 election boycott, Ninoy Aquino realized that if he remained outside for long, he would lapse into political irrelevance. In order to get back into the scene, Aquino decided to return in August 1983. His death on Marcos’ orders (many people now believe that it was Imelda Marcos who ordered it, not Ferdinand) transformed him into a martyr for the Filipino people. He became a rallying point for a wave of protests that pushed Marcos to declare snap elections in February 1986.
When Marcos called for snap elections, it was Salvador Laurel who was the most likely candidate of the opposition. But many of those who were active in the protest movement didn’t want Laurel to lead them. Eventually, the united opposition chose Cory Aquino to run as president. Laurel had to very reluctantly agree to run as vice president.
Thus, the Marcos – Aquino was a small part of the contradiction during Martial Law.

Post EDSA governments chose to emphasize the role of the Aquinos in overthrowing Marcos. Cory Aquino needed to: she was faced with numerous coup attempts against her, and she wanted to honor the memory of her assasinated husband. Fidel Ramos, who succeeded Cory Aquino, emphasized the last years of Martial Law; because in the first part, he was Martial Law’s enforcer.

‘Never Again’
It is of utmost importance that our people are properly educated about the evils of Martial Law. We need to reach out to the young people and inform them about what Martial Law was all about – and not what they learned in school.  We need to revise the history textbooks to give an accurate accout of Martial Law; and that problems with subsequent presidents pale in comparison.

The Marcos-Aquino myth needs to be broken. The story of a whole era of resistance needs to be told. .Ninoy and Cory Aquino should be brought down to earth; their role should be acknowledged, but no longer inflated.

And it is very important to expose FMJr’s personal participation in FM Sr’s crimes. ‘Never Again’ should not only refer to never again having Martial Law. It should also mean that the Filipinos would ‘Never Again’ support the Marcoses bid to return to power.

 

 

 

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A Brexit Timeline

Posted by butalidnl on 2 March 2016

On 23 June 2016, the people of the United Kingdom will vote in a referendum on whether their country should remain in, or leave, the European Union. If a majority votes to leave (or ‘Brexit’, for ‘British Exit from EU’), then the UK will indeed have to leave the EU.
This is one possible timeline for what would happen after the UK votes in favor of Brexit.

24 June to 31 December 2016
On 24 June, the referendum results are declared in the UK:
The UK Cabinet and Parliament decide that the country will indeed leave the European Union by 1 January 2017.

Negotiations between the UK and the EU are held.
They agree to maintain the free flow of goods and services between the UK and the EU; and to allow for visa-free travel between the UK and EU on the condition: that the UK will continue to adhere with EU product standards, financial and employment regulations; and that the UK makes a substantial annual contribution to the EU budget. The contribution would be similar with the arrangement the EU has with Norway (i.e. around Euro 100 per citizen), the UK will contribute Euro 7 billion/year (compared to its Euro 12 billion contribution at present)

The value of the British Pound will decline relative to the Euro.

The EU budget for 2017 and beyond is adjusted to compensate for he loss of the UK contribution by increasing country contributions from 1.23% of Gross National Income to 1.29%.

The UK opts to maintain agricultural subsidies at the same level as that of the EU’s CAP (Common Agricultural Policy), at least for a transition period of 3 years.

EU free trade talks with the US are suspended, because of the pending Brexit.

Foreign investments into the UK are greatly reduced during this period, due to uncertainty over the effect of the Brexit.

2017-2018
UK exports to the EU increases, as well as tourist arrivals, as a result of the Pound’s devaluation. Prices of all goods imported into the UK rise.

British companies are excluded from bidding for government contracts in the EU.
UK goods entering the EU are subjected to border contols, checking of documents and VAT payment.

The number of EU citizens working in the UK reduced by half (from 3 million to 1.5 million),  the number of UK citizens working in the EU are halved as well (from 1 million to 500 thousand)..
The UK continues to allow skilled workers to enter and work, but blocks the entry of unskilled workers. As a result, a lot of  unskilled jobs go to British citizens.
Wages for skilled workers from the EU rise because the Pound has devaluated relative to the Euro. At the same time, unskilled British workers get paid more because of the tighter labor market.

The people of the UK feel that their lives have gotten better as a result of the Brexit.

The UK holds early elections, the Conservatives win.

2019-2021
Foreign manufacturers (e.g. in the auto industry) do not establish new plants in the UK, but instead locate within the EU. Some plants in the UK are downsized.
Multinationals transfer their Europe headquarters from London to within the EU.
Many UK medium-sized service companies transfer to the EU, in order to be able to access the EU market.

The exodus of many companies and the restricted entry of foreign workers cause the UK real estate market to collapse.

UK inflation rises significantly higher than the EU’s 2% (due to higher cost of imported goods, less efficient production, etc).

UK reduces agricultural subsidies to farmers by half. Agricultural production, and exports to the EU, decrease.

The UK signs a free trade agreement with the US. The EU does not.

The UK feels significantly non-EU. The exodus of companies, cut in agricultural subsidies and production, etc are viewed as natural results of asserting sovereignty. (at least, this is what politicians tell the people).

2022-2024
The European Council (composed of the heads of all EU member countries) abolishes the need for unanimity for any of its decisions. Decisions that previously required unanimity will then be decided by qualified majority. This will greatly facilitate decision making.
The Eurogroup (the group of countries with the Euro currency) also decide to abolish the need for unanimity.
The European Parliament acquires the power to supervise the European Commission. The EP could now approve the nomination of individual Commission members, and could depose them by a vote of no-confidence.

UK trade with the EU declines.

The EU welcomes Turkey as a member. Accession talks with Ukraine begin.

Sweden and Denmark adopt the Euro.

EU establishes a Common Energy Policy, which reduces import prices for imported energy (especially from Russia), and coordinates alternative energy development.

EU Finance Ministry is established. The EUFM supervises the implementation of fiscal guidelines across the EU. Tax rates can only vary within limited ranges. Government expenditure.are allowed to vary only within limited ranges. (For example, a country could not have a disproportionately large military budget)
The EUFM issues EU Bonds. These will gradually replace bonds issued by national governments.

Frankfurt grows in importance as a financial center, rivalling London.

The exodus of foreign companies from the UK hurt Scotland the most within the UK; the Scots then pushes for another referendum on independence. In May 2022, the Scottish vote to leave the UK, starting on 1 January 2025.

Being outside the EU irritates the people of Northern Ireland. With the secession of Scotland, they have two EU countries as neighbors; meaning that there are border controls on both sides of their country. Then, the cut in agricultural subsidies hurts them. Both Protestants and Catholics want to secede from the UK and join the EU.

In Northern Ireland, people are inspired by the Scottish example, and demand to also have a referendum on independence.

EU integration accelerates; the UK starts to disintegrate.

2025-2027
The Euro is adopted throughout the whole EU. New members are required to adopt the Euro upon entry.

All EU countries are required to join the Shengen agreement on the free flow of persons.

Scotland becomes independent. It then applies for membership in the EU, and is accepted within a year.

Corsica and Catalonia secede from France and Spain respectively. They are accepted into the EU as new members. Cyprus reunites.

Northern Ireland becomes independent after majority of its citizens vote for it in a referendum. The country then forms a federation with the Republic of Ireland.

Moldova forms a federation with Romania, effectively joining the EU.

Ukraine and Serbia become members of the EU.  EU Accession talks with Bosnia, Iceland Norway, Montenegro, Kosovo, Macedonia and Georgia begin. Association agreements are signed by the EU with Belarus, Armenia, Albania and Azerbaijan.

The name ‘United Kingdom’ is dropped after the secession of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The country is renamed ‘England & Wales’.

The EU is growing to finally encompass all of Europe except for Russia and England & Wales.

 

 

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Let Overseas Filipinos Participate

Posted by butalidnl on 20 January 2016

The issue of Grace Poe not being Filipino enough to be president is mostly political bluster (or legalistic gymnastics); but it reveals a deep-seated bias of many Filipinos against kababayans who have lived and worked abroad. For these people, Grace Poe’s real ‘crime’ is that she spent some years out of the country. This is ironic: the Philippines hails Overseas Filipinos as its new heroes; but if we try to do more, we are often treated with suspicion as ‘meddling foreigners’.

We Overseas Filipinos do not want to be treated merely as ninongs to the Philippines – whose only role is to give gifts. We feel that remittances should be the beginning of our involvement with the Philippines, not the end.  But there are many barriers to our full involvement.

There are many limits to our economic participation. Overseas Filipinos can only invest in micro (e.g. sari-sari stores or jeepneys ) and sometimes small businesses . Citizenship or residency requirements limit those residing abroad from investing in more substantial ventures.
When we buy real estate e.g. condominiums, we are forced to surrender most of our rights to our relatives. Banks require that we assign signing rights to a relative;  making them virtually the owners of the unit while we are paying off the loan. Even if we happen to be in the Philippines at the time of a signing, our relative still has to sign for us.

In politics, Overseas Filipinos are still a bit disenfranchised. It was only recently that the provision in the Overseas Absentee Voting law requiring us to sign an ‘Intent to Return’ affidavit before registering to vote was scrapped. This provision had discouraged many from registering to vote, for fear of endangering their legal status in their host country.
Overseas Filipinos are not represented in Congress – ideally, there should be a few congressmen who are directly elected from among us. Now, all we have are OF relatives who claim to do so.
Residency requirements completely bar us from running for office. Even in the case of Grace Poe, who has lived the required number of years in the Philippines, people still raise all kinds of technicalities to keep her from running for President.

Natural Born
Some people say that Grace Poe is a naturalized Filipino. She is not. She is a natural-born Filipino who went abroad, acquired the citizenship of her host country (making her a dual citizen), and then opted to renounce her foreign citizenship. She remains a natural-born Filipino.

Many Overseas Filipinos have reacquired their Filipino ciitzenship after the Dual Citizenship Law was enacted in 2002.  Those who reacquire Filipino citizenship are also natural-born Filipinos. Having two citizenships does not make them a lower category of Filipino citizen.
Overseas Filipinos who reacquire their Filipino citizenship do so for a variety of reasons: to vote at elections; to buy land or invest; to exercise a profession. Some do it mainly for ‘sentimental’ reasons – strengthening their feeling of ‘Filipino-ness’. Whatever the reason, OFs do so because they want to be more involved with the Philippines.

Relatives
The government, and most people, think that our relatives could represent us. This is only true to a limited extent. Of course, we love our relatives. For many of us, they are the reason why we are abroad in the first place. But this does not mean that they think like us, or that their interests are the same as ours.
Often, when OFs leave relatives in charge of houses that we build; the relative takes on the effective ownership of those houses. They can make alterations to the house, or they take on boarders or subdivide the house and rent the rooms out to people. When we visit the Philippines, we could not stay in the house because there is no more room for us.

There are many relatives who ask our help in setting up a ‘business’. This is probably a tricycle, a market stall or other micro business. But, most of the time, the business is not managed well: equipment is not maintained well; or there is not enough working capital (because it got spent for ‘urgent’ uses); or they take out a loan, which they cannot repay. In a few years, nothing is left of the ‘business’. Overseas Filipinos know this, and only ‘invest’ money that they can afford to lose, because very often, that is what happens.

In politics, representatives of OF families have run in elections or lobby the government for ‘better’ laws. Actually, the laws they want would be better for themselves, and not necessarily for OFs. For example, OFs would like to do away with the arrangement where a fixed percentage of salaries is remitted to the families. The relatives are very much against changing this arrangement.

Brain Gain
The potential for OFs to contribute to the country’s development goes far beyond our monetary contribution. OFs have gained skills, knowledge, insights, networks, values etc. due to our exposure to the wider world.  In order to unleash this potential, all kinds of hurdles to OF participation in Philippine development need to be dismantled.
If Overseas Filipinos are allowed to directly invest in and run a whole range of companies, it will result in a stream of money that will greatly surpass traditional remittances.

If Overseas Filipinos are allowed to fully participate in politics, it will have a positive effect on the country’s politics, especially that of national elections.

I hope the Philippines makes a start at this. The Supreme Court could start this off by declaring Grace Poe as a natural-born Filipino, declare that her period as a US citizen is irrlevant to her present candidacy, and allow her to run for president.

 

 

Posted in Overseas Filipinos, Philippine politics, Philippines, politics, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Oil Price may drop to $10/barrel

Posted by butalidnl on 14 December 2015

Last year, I posted a blog Oil Price will settle at around $35 predicting that oil will stabilize (on the medium term) at $35/barrel. On 14 December, the price of Brent oil was below $38/barrel. So, will the oil price finally settle at $35/barrel? Yes, but not right away. The nature of markets is that they tend to overshoot equilibrium points. Thus, the price will probably overshoot downwards; resulting in short-term prices well below equilibrium.

The limits of this is determined by cost. The average cost of producing oil is $35/barrel – with $25 as the price of development, and $10 the price of extraction.  The costs differ, based on the particular method of producing oil. Land-based shallow wells cost less than $25/barrel to develop; and also less than $10/barrel to pump. Deep-sea wells cost $50 or more to develop, and $10/barrel to pump. Oil from tar sands cost very little to develop, but $50/barrel or more to extract.

The present situation of every producer pumping as much oil as they can would mean that the price would continue to drop below $35 (at least in the short term). Since production from existing wells continue to be profitable (i.e. the price of the oil is higher than the marginal cost of production); owners of those wells will continue pumping oil. They will do so until the price reaches $10/barrel,  the point where it will be more profitable to stop producing (for a large number of wells).
This means that, in the short term, the oil price could reach as low as $10/barrel.

This is only for the short term, however. After a while of oil at extremely low prices, when little or no new wells are drilled; the total oil produced will decrease because the depletion of existing wells is not compensated by production from new wells. The lower production will drive prices up, until it reaches the point where it would again be profitable to drill new wells.
Thus, the price will gradually rise, until it finally would stabilize at about $35/barrel.

In the long term (more than 5 years), the average cost of production would inevitably increase, as cheaper sources of oil get depleted. Thus, more and more, deep-sea wells and tar sands will take on a bigger proportion of the total oil produced. This will raise the average cost of production, meaning that the equilibrium point will rise.

In short, here are the projections for the oil price:
– short term (6 months to a year): as low as $10/barrel
– medium term (2 to 5 years): stable around $35/barrel
– long term (more than 5 yearsr): price will rise gradually, reflecting rising average production costs.

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