2022

It is a few days into the New Year, and instead of making resolutions, I like to put out some predictions for the year – both for the Philippines, and globally.

I think the Covid-19 pandemic will largely be over by this time next year. I don’t mean that there will no longer be cases, or even waves in specific countries. I mean that Covid-19 will no longer be an impediment to travel; there will be no more lockdowns, nor panics when a new variant arrives. Covid-19 will just be one of those things, which are annoying, but no longer really dangerous.

The US elections in November will be won by Democrats, who will ride on the positive economic performance of the Biden presidency, and on the aversion to the pro-Trump wave sweeping the Republicans. This will be going against the prevailing wisdom that the party of a first-term president loses in midterm elections.
In the Philippines May election, I expect Leni Robredo to win. It will be a one-on-one race eventually, against Marcos Jr; one in which she will carry the masses against the superior funds of her opponent.

The Russian threat against Ukraine will fizzle out, inspite of all threats that Putin makes. The Ukrainian army is now much stronger than it was in 2014, and added to the threat of economic sanctions, and the difficulty of holding territory against a determined nationalist resistance movement will be enough to deter Russia from attacking.

The Beijing Winter Olympics will be a success, despite diplomatic boycotts and extreme Covid-19 measures. Later in the year, China will loosen its zero Covid-19 policy. And possibly also its XinJiang policies (by a little bit). Xi Jinping’s hold on power will have been consolidated by then, and the Chinese communist party could afford a little loosening.

The price of oil will probably end up the year where it began – at around $80/barrel for Brent crude. Opec+ will continue with its gradual increase in production for most of the year, but the US will not be able to increase production significantly.

I will review these predictions a year from now. I am curious how many of my predictions will hold out.