All-Electric by 2040?

The UK government declared on 25 July 2017 that all new cars that will be sold in the country by 2040 will be electric. Similar goals have been declared by some other European countries: Norway had declared that only hybrid and electric cars will be sold there after 2025; France by 2030, and Germany by 2040. Volvo of Sweden has led car manufacturers by declaring that it will only manufacture hybrid and electric cars by 2019. Before long, it is quite possible that most European countries will subscribe to the aim of ‘All-Electric by 2040’.

The 2040 target has been criticized as being unrealistic by some, and being too modest by environmental activists. I think it may be just right. Some studies have shown that 80% of all new cars that will be sold in Europe by 2040 will be electric, even without changes in government policy. So, it should be quite possible to achieve 100% electric by 2040 with the help of government policy.

Government Policy
Governments need to give electric cars an extra push, especially in the early years, before the mechanisms of the market kick in.  One example of this would be the setting up charging stations for electric cars. In the beginning, companies would be reluctant to set them up because there are still relatively few electric cars to use them. But, if there are too few recharging stations, people would be less likely to buy electric cars. To stimulate electric car use, governments could require parking areas to have a certain number of charging stations, and it could also put  up charging stations itself in order to ensure their good geographic dispersal.
When fast-charging technology gets more developed, government could require all fuel stations to have them.

Tax and other incentives could also be used to spur electric car sales. In the Netherlands, lease car users are exempted from paying income tax on their leased car if their car is electric; as a result, 16% of new cars sold in the country in 2016 are now electric. In China, buyers of new cars wait 2-years to have them registered, but buyers of electric cars have no waiting period. This has resulted in a boom of electric car sales there.
Government could also exempt electric cars from toll fees for highways, or entry fees for certain city zones.  Taxes on carbon-based fuels could be steadily increased to further stimulate the shift to electric cars.

Governments own a lot of cars, and they could have a large part of their vehicle pool made up of electric cars. In addition, they could require or encourage their contractors to have electric cars.

Parallel Developments
The drive towards ‘All-electric by 2040’ will be aided by developments directly or indirectly related to the goal.
Batteries, lithium-based or other kinds, will rapidly become more powerful, plentiful and cheaper in the coming decades. In addition to their use in electric cars, they are critical for the development of alternative energy e.g. solar panels and wind turbines, which need a means to store energy because of their intermittent nature. Solar panels produce electricity during the day, but this energy also needs to be stored for use during the evening. Big wind turbine farms need batteries to store energy for when there is no wind; batteries would result in a steady outflow of energy to the electricity grid.
Conversely, the rapid adoption of electric cars will stimulate the development of the market for batteries.

Clean Air. Cities are increasingly clamping down on ‘dirty’ vehicles in an effort to lessen pollution. Diesel vehicles are now restricted or prohibited in areas within many cities.  It is only a matter of time before autos running on gasoline will also be restricted. Governments in countries where pollution is a big problem are now giving incentives for people to buy electric cars.

Smart Grid. Recharging cars at home during the night is good for consumers, since electricity prices are lower then. If a big portion of the charging is done at night, electric cars will only add a little to the daytime load of power plants. Decentralized power generation, mainly by solar panels, would also lighten the daytime load on power plants.

Scarcer support infrastructure for motor cars.  When electric cars become much more common, the infrastructure supporting gasoline/diesel cars will also be less. There will be lesser fuel stations, lesser service points for motor cars. It will become increasingly inconvenient to have motor cars. At the same time, support infrastructure for electric cars will be more available, making them more convenient to use.

Objections
There are people who object to the ‘All-electric by 2040’ target, claiming that it is impractical, expensive and ineffective.
No Net Effect on Environment. The argument is that if electric cars plug into an electric grid where power was generated by coal or other ‘dirty’ sources, electric cars will simply be transferring pollution from the individual cars to the power generating station. Thus, the total pollution will be the same.
It sounds logical, but it is not true. Internal combustion motors in individual cars are quite inefficient, compared to electric cars using grid electricity.  Transferring energy generation from individual automobiles to a power plant will save at least half of the fuel. This is similar to having electric generators in every house; replacing all these by a central power plant will save a lot of fuel. In addition, heat generated in centralized power plants could be used to heat  thousands of homes. So, even if the power source is ‘dirty’, electric cars will radically reduce carbon dioxide production as well as pollution.

Motor Cars Can Always be Imported.  If a given EU country prohibits the sale of new motor cars after 2040, under existing EU rules, people would still be allowed to buy motor cars in another EU country and bring them in (because of their right to have parallel imports).  This can be minimized through the use of taxation and other regulations. For example, inspections for road-worthiness (which are now required for older cars in the Netherlands and other countries) could be required for all motor cars, regardless of their age. Then, specific taxes on gasoline and diesel could be raised significantly (perhaps to double the previous rate), so as to keep fuel prices at a significantly higher level.
If enough EU countries agree, restrictions could be placed on the parallel importation of new motor cars into countries which are already ‘all-electric’.

Expensive. Not really. There will be initial costs in things like setting up charging stations, and lost revenues due to tax exemptions for electric cars. But, as electric cars catch on, taxes on electric cars will gradually be increased, while taxes on motor cars increased even faster. The income from higher taxes will exceed the initial expenses for stimulating electric cars.
A lot of things that government needs to do cost little or nothing.  Some costs will be borne by private entities, but this will be relatively small.

Power Grid will be Overloaded.  The recharging of a lot of electric cars will overstretch the capacity of the power grid.
Not really. A lot of the electric cars will be recharged at night, when electricity demand is low.  The load on the electricity grid will expand gradually; and capacity from traditional or renewable sources will be able to take on any increase in demand.

Unemployment. The shift to electric cars will cause a lot of jobs in businesses that depend on motor cars (e.g. fuel stations, auto repair shops etc.).
The transition will take more than 20 years, and there will be a lot of time to adjust. Electric cars will need new services, and these in turn will be served by new (or even old) businesses. For example, fast recharging could be done at fuel stations.

Crossing Borders. People who use their cars to cross over to countries which do not have an ‘All-electric by 2040’ target may  have problems because electric cars may not be as well supported in these other countries as in their home country. For these people, it may be better for them to have plug-in hybrid cars – so they can be electric in their home country, and use gasoline or diesel in the foreign country.
This will not be a problem within the EU, which will probably have agreements to support electric cars even for countries which have not converted fully to electric. However, for people who travel by car to countries outside the EU e.g. Morocco, the Balkans and Turkey, this may be the case.

Step by Step
The target of ‘all-electric by 2040’ is better achieved by setting sub-targets on the way. This could be:
2025 – 50% of new cars sold should either be hybrid or electric
2030 – 80% of new cars sold should be hybrid or electric
2035 – 100% of new cars sold should be hybrid or electric
2040 – 100% of new cars sold should be electric
2050 – all cars on the road are electric

This will give the public, auto makers and lawmakers a guide as to when certain shifts could be made.

The target of ‘all-electric by 2040’ will develop its own inertia. If the goal is clearly and forcefully set out by the government, and steps taken towards it, other parties will act accordingly. Thus, companies will phase-out their production of motor cars, politicians will pass laws favoring the transition, and consumers will choose to buy electric cars long before the target date.