Carlo's Think Pieces

Reflections of a Filipino in the Netherlands

Archive for January 3rd, 2018

Looking Forward to 2018

Posted by butalidnl on 3 January 2018

A number of times now (for 2008, 2010 and 2015), I made a list of predictions of things that will happen in the year to come.  Most of these have happened, but there have been big ‘upsets’, such as Hillary Clinton not becoming president in 2008. I feel the need to do this again for the coming year, so here goes:

Philippines
I believe that Chief Justice Sereno will NOT be impeached. The House will probably pass the impeachment call to the Senate, but that is where she will be acquitted.
Peace between the government and the MILF will be sealed by the passing of the Bangsamoro Basic Law. This will have a concrete positive effect of boosting economic development in Moro areas; though there will still be pockets of armed conflict.

In December, there will be a strong typhoon that will hit Mindanao.

US
Democrats will win the midterm elections, gaining both the House and the Senate. After this, they will start impeachment proceedings against Trump.  The US will finally take a very limited military action against NKorea. NKorea will protest vehemently, but do essentially nothing.
Mueller will find Trump guilty of attempting to interefere with the investigation against him. The investigation on collusion with Russia will still go beyond the year.

The Dow Jones index will suffer a significant fall (i.e. more than 15% from its highest point), probably in the third quarter.

The Rest of the World
The conflict between Qatar and Saudi Arabia et al will be resolved – sort of. Most of the blockade will be lifted, but they would not really be that friendly with each other. US pressure would have been instrumental in this reconciliation.
The Syrian government and the Kurds will fight each other. Both Russia and the US will try their best to support their allies without fighting each other. Ukrainian government forces will recover some land in the Donbass (specifically in Donetsk), but too little to really hurt the rebels.
Brexit talks will be nearing their end. They will agree on what is essentially the Norway model (participation in the Single Market, for a fee) for a transitional period.

The Bitcoin bubble will burst; its value will eventually stabilize at around $5000.

 

 

 

 

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