Carlo's Think Pieces

Reflections of a Filipino in the Netherlands

Looking Forward to 2015

Posted by butalidnl on 6 January 2015

Twice earlier, in 2008 and 2010, I wrote a blog with predictions for the year that had just started. Looking back, I didn’t do too bad. In fact, my only real mistake was predicting that Hillary Clinton would win the presidential elections in 2008.
I want to revive my practice of listing my predictions at the beginning of the year. I’m looking forward to reviewing them a year from now to see how well I did.

Philippines
Both Jejomar Binay’s and Mar Roxas’ stars will fade as presidential candidates. Someone else will take their place and go on to become the leading candidate for president.

The trial of Jinggoy Estrada, Juan Ponce Enrile and Bong Revilla will start, probably in the latter part of the year. Similarly, the long-awaited Ampatuan trial will also start.

In November or December, there will be a supertyphoon that will hit the country. It may be as powerful as Yolanda, but it will have less casualties.

The World
ISIL will no longer be growing. Both the area that it controls and the recruits that it makes will be much less than today. The entire Iraqi Kurd area (and maybe also the Syrian Kurd area) will be safe from ISIL.

Ukraine. Large areas of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces will be recovered from the rebels.

The ruble will drop to 100:$1 or lower. Russia’s GDP will decrease by 15% or more in 2015.

The oil price will hit $40/barrel, but will not remain at that price for long. It will adversely affect the economies of many oil producing countries. Notably, Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria. Even the US economy will be adversely affected.

The Greek Syriza party will not win the elections in February, meaning that Greece will not decide to leave the Eurozone.

Canada and the US will suffer extremely low termperatures for a large part of the winter. US economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 will suffer as a result.

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